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п»їNFL DFS Picks: Week 5.
In life, as in football, we’re often pressed to make decisions with samples that aren’t ideal for any number of reasons. Have I gone on enough dates with this person to know if they’d be a compatible partner? How much time should I expect a drive to take, given its duration was three hours once and five hours on another occasion? What weight should I pick for bench pressing with dumbbells given I know how much I can lift with a barbell? When there aren’t clear answers, but the stakes are high, you have a great question on your hands.
As we move more than a month into the season and explore (with the exceptions of the Steelers and the Titans) a complete four-game sample, it’s tempting to do one of two things—one, overweigh the information present, listing efficiency stats and idiosyncratic metrics that are more noise than anything else; two, eschew even the relevant signal, defaulting to priors and over-relying on gut feeling rather than taking advantage of what’s available. Of course, the appropriate philosophy is somewhere in between, and I lead with this sentiment because four games is approximately the break-even point between the predictiveness of preseason rankings against in-season performance on how players wind up finishing at the end of the year.
Even more interesting—in DFS, it’s not only important to think about the sample on hand, but how everyone else is interpreting that sample. The Joe Mixon that earned a top-12 ADP in season-long wouldn’t appear to be a leverage play against a porous Jaguars run defense, especially if I told you his price was at its lowest point of the season. But, as I wrote last week , he made a lot of sense in tournaments: “I’d pivot off [the chalk] with Joe Mixon, because I’m not sure who in their right mind wants to play Joe Mixon right now.” 45.1 DraftKings points at 4% ownership later, and you’ve exploited the signal (high opportunity) against others focusing on noise (low efficiency, bad matchups, zero TDs) for lucrative finishes. It might not always be that simple, sure, but we’ll give it a go—here’s a look at my NFL DFS Picks for Week 5.
As a reminder, I’ve created and will be hosting a new DFS podcast, Slate Breakers , with fellow FantasyData expert Chris Mitchell throughout the season. Episodes will be embedded in these preview articles upon release later in the week, but you can also follow me on Twitter for an immediate notification when a show drops. I 've also updated this piece to reflect that two games, Broncos-Patriots and Bills-Titans, are no longer part of the main slate.
Quick Links.
It’s feeling like the high-priced QBs are hitting every week, doesn’t it? That’s because they are, which is making for very aggressive salaries once again here, even if there isn’t as good shootout potential with some of the top guys. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the field overcorrect to the top 5-6 options and then get flustered when a contrarian/cheaper stack takes down tournaments soon, though isn’t necessarily going to be this week. Lamar Jackson ($7900 on DraftKings) leads the way, with Patrick Mahomes ($7700), Dak Prescott ($7400), and Deshaun Watson ($6900) all on squads with team totals above 30. You should be wary of blowouts limiting the overall volume for any of these four, but I’m never going to tell you not to play them.
Either Gardner Minshew ($6200) or Matt Ryan ($6100) seems viable to me in cash, though you’ll want to monitor the status of Julio Jones for Atlanta. On the flipside of that game, though, what about Teddy Bridgewater ($5900)? I’ve seen more than enough to feel confident saying that the Falcons are a fantastic matchup for opposing passers, and there are scenarios where it ends up as the highest-scoring contest on this slate. The other cheap player that grabs my attention due to his opponent is Daniel Jones ($5400), who we always knew was going to look bad given his initial schedule but now may have a chance to open things up. Don’t tell anyone I said this, but if he’s getting the start, Jarrett Stidham ($4900) is a mega-mega-punt; Kyle Allen ($4100) also exists even cheaper.
Favorite Plays: Lamar Jackson ($7900), Deshaun Watson ($6900), Teddy Bridgewater ($5900)
Running Back.
I know he didn’t blow up last week, but for Ezekiel Elliott ($7800) to exceed 20 fantasy points in a game the Cowboys trailed throughout (without reaching the end zone, also) should be a reminder that he’s still too cheap and always in play. He and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6800) should be healthy chalk this week; Josh Jacobs ($6300) thereby becomes a great leverage play (he won’t hit most of the time, but if the Raiders do somehow control this game, you’ve got a huge edge). The other reason that Jacobs and James Conner ($6900) make for good pivots is the presence of Kareem Hunt ($6500) presumably running the show for Cleveland and Mike Davis ($6400) continuing to carry ownership despite the price hike. I do like each from that pairing in a vacuum, and so will the field.
If Raheem Mostert misses another game, the role that Jerick McKinnon ($5800) played in Week 4 (92% of snaps, 8 targets, 21 total touches) is one I’m going to be buying shares of. I wound up on Antonio Gibson ($5000) as an alternative to Ronald Jones on Sunday, and while he’s risen from 4500, you can certainly do worse. Myles Gaskin ($4800) quietly sees solid usage on a weekly basis, D’Ernest Johnson ($4700)/ Dontrell Hilliard ($4000) could be supplemental backs to Hunt, and Devonta Freeman ($4600) did lead the Giants in carries in addition to running routes on 47% of dropbacks. The ceilings for this range of players feel limited, though, so I’d be focusing on up higher. Lastly, keep an eye on Cam Akers ($4000) as a punt; reports for whether he’ll be active and involved will be important.
Favorite Plays: Ezekiel Elliott ($7800), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6800), Kareem Hunt ($6500), Jerick McKinnon ($5800), Cam Akers ($4000)
Wide Receiver.
Picking WRs is fun with all the scoring these days, and unlike RB, it’s easier for a random player to have a blowup game here and there. You should have a broader pool at the position, though you should also think about playing WRs in the FLEX more than you might have in previous seasons. That relative scarcity makes me much more inclined to go with Zeke over DeAndre Hopkins ($7900) at roughly the same price; I wouldn’t mind catching people box score watching to mix in Calvin Ridley ($7500) as either the core or bring back of any Panthers-Falcons stacks. We missed the chance to play Tyreek Hill ($6900) on the main slate at this same price when their game got moved, and although I don’t think of the Raiders offense as equally likely to keep up with the Chiefs than a Cam Newton-led Patriots would have been, I still think it’s too cheap a price for him.
Will Fuller ($6600) and D.J. Chark ($6500) are appealing pieces from another game I’m interested to build around, so while I’m on it, don’t forget about Brandin Cooks ($4100) and Laviska Shenault Jr. ($4500) either. Since people will chase Odell Beckham Jr. ’s ($6400) big day I might instead try to land on Marquise Brown ($6300), who had 219 air yards in Week 4, and it seems like we’re splitting hairs with the Panthers WRs now—take your pick between D.J. Moore ($6000) and Robby Anderson ($5900). The early bye week has allowed Diontae Johnson ($5600) to clear concussion protocol, so he’ll see some of my lineups, and with the market likely overweight on Dallas, it might make Michael Gallup ($5400) the sneaky Cowboy to play once again.
We've lost John Brown from the main slate, but I’d fire a shot just under 5K at Tee Higgins ($4900) or Darius Slayton ($4800). You have to understand that these types of guys don’t hit all the time, but they don’t need to hit all the time—the successful dart throws pay for a slew of misses, and we just try to find the ones with the best probability of coming through. Your minimum salary play is none other than Olamide Zaccheaus ($3000) or Jeff Smith ($3000) now that Damiere Byrd is no longer an option.
Favorite Plays: Calvin Ridley ($7500), Tyreek Hill ($6900), D.J. Chark ($6500), Darius Slayton ($4800), Olamide Zaccheaus ($3000)
Tight End.
Question: Where do you think George Kittle ($6600) would have been priced if the slate hadn’t been released before his 15-183-1 receiving performance on Sunday night? My answer would be $7200-$7400, but you know what? It doesn’t matter. I’m totally good with Travis Kelce ($6400) or Mark Andrews ($6200) or Darren Waller ($5900) as well, so don’t get tunnel vision—when you look at the volume for Kittle, though, I’m probably finding a way to fit him even in cash.
The <4K range is mostly hoping for a touchdown or breakaway play, so in between the top tier and punts, it’s worth looking at Dalton Schultz ($4800), Hayden Hurst ($4700), and Evan Engram ($4600). Hurst gets a boost if his teammates sit , whereas Schultz and Engram go head-to-head in a game script that will favor volume for Engram. Logan Thomas ($3500) is still running a lot of routes and Jordan Akins ($3300) could be a flier if he plays (if he doesn’t, Darren Fells is priced just 100 more).
Favorite Plays: George Kittle ($6600), Darren Waller ($5900), Evan Engram ($4600)

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п»їNick Bosa's girlfriend, Jenna Berman, called out for racially insensitive tweets.
As the NFL prepares to begin another season next month, it will once again roll out its campaign to help end racism in America. The league is outwardly showing that it supports minority communities, but parts within the machine continue to snap off and rattle around.
Nick Bosa, the San Francisco 49ers star defensive end, has his own history with very bad tweets. Ahead of the NFL Draft a few years ago, Bosa deleted tweets in which he made statements that align with the alt-right ideology, including those that were pro-Trump, pro-MAGA and anti-BLM. These ranged from things as seemingly innocent as criticizing the hype around the Academy Award-nominated film Black Panther, to more pointedly bigoted statements about Colin Kaepernick kneeling to raise awareness for police brutaility in America.
Bosa posted the tweets while he was a very public figure at Ohio State, so it's not as though he was initially trying to hide anything. Until PR intervention, Bosa was stating an opinion; one that aligned with a movement with widely documented racist and sexist undertones.
It's an open secret that many players in the NFL supported the alt-right movement. Bosa wasn't the first or only player to voice a pro-MAGA opinion or do it with pride. He won't be the last, either, nor will he be the last to be called out for it or have someone in his life called out for what they say.
Why is everyone calling Nick Bosa racist?
Now his girlfriend, Jenna Berman is under fire for past tweets that have resurfaced. Tweets that Berman posted back in 2013 are making the rounds again, in which Berman –a white woman — brazenly uses the n-word.
This whole thread has the deleted tweets, which we won't signal boost here because they're extremely offensive and downright disgusting.
It's not just the one tweet featured at the top of the thread. There are so many tweets where a white woman is using the n-word freely and without care or remorse.
Nick Bosa GF called out for using racially insensnitive language on Twitter.
Berman does not play in the NFL, nor is she subject to any of its policies. She did, however, post racially insensitive tweets on a public account in a public forum and then have almost a decade to delete them. She was unsurprisingly called out and criticized when the old tweets resurfaced.
The 49ers could deal with Bosa's political opinions being a "distraction" but not Kap… Wonder what the difference is… — Rod (@rodimusprime) August 2, 2021.
By the way, Nick Bosa's opinions are not a secret. I'm old enough to remember a lot of NFL dudes having smoke for Chad Wheeler (as they should have), but how many of y'all are willing to confront open bigots in your own locker room? Asking as a fan. — Jemele Hill (@jemelehill) August 2, 2021.
You're a fool if you don't think Nick Bosa feels the exact same way as his girlfriend. — mike freeman (@mikefreemanNFL) August 2, 2021.
Nick Bosa not getting vaccinated and his girlfriend being a gigantic racist are two of the most unshocking things in 2021. — Tony Posnanski (@tonyposnanski) August 2, 2021.
Nick Bosa's girlfriend is exactly the kind of girlfriend you would expect him to have. — Richelle Carey (@RichelleCarey) August 2, 2021.

Nick Bosa has not seen the field in the preseason this year as he recovers from a torn ACL he sustained early last season. That doesn't matter to Raheem Mostert. The 49ers running back sees the bigger picture with the star pass rusher.
"Oh yeah, he’s going to be ready for Week 1," Mostert said on the "Tiki and Tierney" show. "I don’t know what's going to happen in this last preseason game with him, but quite frankly I don't really care because all I want is for him to open up the season fresh and ready to go.
"He’s doing a great job, his rehab is coming along great."
Bosa made an immediate impact on the 49ers in 2019 after being the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL draft. He recorded nine sacks in the regular season as a rookie, and then added four more in three playoff games. Bosa was named the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year and was expected to be a star last season.
Then came the injury. Bosa tore his ACL in the 49ers' second game of the season, the start to a long list of injuries for San Francisco. Now, he's expected to be ready to roll for the season opener.
Mostert has been talking with Bosa, and can't wait for the world to see just how great the Ohio State product is again.
RELATED: Projecting 49ers' 53-man roster as regular season nears.
"Oh man, he’s excited, he really is," Mostert said. "He left some stuff out there on the field last year with the injury but I know this is going to be his bounce-back year and I'm excited to watch him.”
The 49ers are expected to rely heavily on their D-line, just like their 2019 Super Bowl run, and it all starts with Bosa.

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Nick Bosa’s recovery could have the 49ers star ‘better than his rookie year’
Defensive end Nick Bosa’s next step in his knee recovery is to take his chiseled body into 49ers full-team drills next week.
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COSTA MESA — Nick Bosa has the least body fat among his 49ers’ teammates, and he’s not afraid to show it.
To get ready for next week’s entry into full-team drills, this is the tale of how he’s looked in workouts on the side, typically with a trainer after defensive line drills at training camp:
— His abdominal muscles line up like soldiers. They’re an eight-pack glistening in sweat among his bare midriff, below his No. 97 jersey that’s tucked into his shoulder pads.
— His gold, uniform pants are cut-offs, sheered midway up his super-sized quadriceps.
— His hands, covered by red gloves. His feet, adorned with metallic-gold Jordan cleats. His hair, perfectly barbered.
His look is not to resemble a professional model. But, if you’re looking for a lean, mean, pass-rushing machine, he’s made himself into a state-of-the-art prototype for 2021.
This is Bosa’s comeback season, starting Sept. 12 when the 49ers open at Detroit.
“On the side, it looks really good,” defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans said after Friday’s practice against the host Los Angeles Chargers. “I would say that his drills, all the individual stuff that he’s doing, he’s looking fast, he’s looking explosive.
“ … I think he’s going to be better than he was his rookie year.”
Bosa was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year after recording 13 sacks including four in the playoffs. No player more than Bosa, with apologies to quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance, could dictate the 49ers’ fate.
The Bosa veneer is impressive, for sure. What’s inside his left knee – and his mindset — ultimately could decide how he rebounds.
“Anytime guys come back off of injuries, the biggest hurdle is just mentally,” said Ryans, whose linebacker career (2005-15) was interrupted by Achilles tears in 2010 and ’14.
“Just falling on the ground and getting up and understanding that you’re OK — most guys just have to go through that process,” Ryans added.
Bosa has stuck to a tight rehabilitation schedule. In his only interview of camp on July 29, he said he’s on track for the Sept. 12 regular-season opener, adding: “I’m hoping to ramp it up toward that and give it all I’ve got Week 1.”
He is 11 months removed from when the anterior cruciate ligament ruptured in his left knee. He was bent backward on a run play in the 49ers’ second game last season, on the New York Jets’ suspect turf at MetLife Field. His season was done, and, essentially, so was the 49ers’, who went 6-10 with myriad other injuries.
Bosa’s transformation after surgery began here in Orange County, where the 49ers practiced Thursday and Friday against the Los Angeles Chargers before Sunday’s preseason game at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood.
Only 10 minutes from the Chargers’ practice facility is MOTUS Specialists Physical Therapy, the ACL recovery center for Bosa and then-49ers teammate Solomon Thomas, who also was hurt in the 49ers-Jets game.
Orange County is also familiar to Bosa His older brother, Joey, lives there and works for the L.A. Chargers, for whom he has recorded 47.5 sacks in 63 games over five seasons. The Bosa brothers lived and trained together before Nick was drafted No. 2 overall by the 49ers, and big brother’s pad was where Nick crashed after his rehabilitation sessions earlier this year, before he completed his offseason work in the Bosas’ hometown of Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
“I’m happy he’s healthy,” Joey Bosa said after Friday’s practice. “I know he’s going to be an absolute menace out there.”
Their similarities go beyond both wearing No. 97.
Garoppolo joked after Thursday’s practice that Joey Bosa sounded just like his brother when he apologized (“Sorry, Jim”) for stripping the football on a sack.
Tight end George Kittle said of the Bosas: “They move very similar. It looks slow but it’s very fast and powerful. Their whole body just kind of moves like water, going the least amount of resistance.”
Nick Bosa is 6-4, and he reported to camp at 260 pounds, five pounds lighter than his rookie season of stardom. Joey Bosa is listed at 6-5 and 280 pounds. Kittle noted that size difference allows Nick Bosa to get better leverage by hitting “lower to high” into shoulder pads.
“They’re cool, calm, chilling by themselves,” Kittle said. “Then you put them on the football field and they’re violent, aggressive, making play after play and are relentless.
“They don’t turn off until they’re on the sideline, then they’re back to their normal selves. It’s very strange and I love it.”
Other star pass rushers have rebounded from ACL tears: the Denver Broncos’ Von Miller and Bradley Chubb and the Chargers’ Melvin Ingram, for example.
This year’s all-star cast of ACL returnees include Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari, Giants running back Saquon Barkley, Titans tackle Taylor Lewan and pass rusher Bud Dupree.
Not all 49ers’ ACL recoveries have worked well. But some have, to some of their brightest stars, such as Jerry Rice (1997), NaVorro Bowman (2013 postseason) and Garoppolo (2018).
“I’m just excited to see Nick Bosa back on the field,” Kittle said. “Because he’s one of the best players in the NFL.”
Related Articles.
49ers training camp: Highs and lows, led by historic tale of Trey Lance vs. Jimmy Garoppolo 49ers announcer Greg Papa on his split with the Raiders, joining the other side and thoughts on both organizations 49ers legend Joe Staley debuts in NBC Sports Bay Area analyst, humors George Kittle 49ers practice Thursday: ‘Unlimited options’ with Bosa, Ford on D-line; Lance leads starters in red zone Kurtenbach: The 49ers’ 2021 season depends on these nine Niners.
“Every day Nick’s got to hold himself back and everything, and we’re doing it too, but we’ve got a plan,” coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday. “Nick sticking it and it’s smart that he is.”
Part of that plan was nutrition. Bosa changed his game plan this offseason, thriving off vegetables, salads and proteins. He recently received the COVID vaccine, according to The Athletic, which allowed him to travel with the 49ers for this first road trip.
He won’t be playing in Sunday’s preseason game against the Chargers. But come Wednesday, he’s expected to finally appear in team drills after a taxing year.
“Easing him back in coming off of injury, it’ll be great just to have him out there,” Ryans said. “And his presence will be felt.”
Felt, not just seen on the side amid tackling dummies and solo work like the previous three weeks of camp.

Raheem Mostert confident in Nick Bosa's healthy return to 49ers.
Nick Bosa has not seen the field in the preseason this year as he recovers from a torn ACL he sustained early last season. That doesn't matter to Raheem Mostert. The 49ers running back sees the bigger picture with the star pass rusher.
&quot;Oh yeah, he&rsquo;s going to be ready for Week 1,&quot; Mostert said on the &quot;Tiki and Tierney&quot; show. &quot;I don&rsquo;t know what's going to happen in this last preseason game with him, but quite frankly I don't really care because all I want is for him to open up the season fresh and ready to go.
&quot;He&rsquo;s doing a great job, his rehab is coming along great.&quot;
Bosa made an immediate impact on the 49ers in 2019 after being the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL draft. He recorded nine sacks in the regular season as a rookie, and then added four more in three playoff games. Bosa was named the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year and was expected to be a star last season.
Then came the injury. Bosa tore his ACL in the 49ers' second game of the season, the start to a long list of injuries for San Francisco. Now, he's expected to be ready to roll for the season opener.
Mostert has been talking with Bosa, and can't wait for the world to see just how great the Ohio State product is again.
RELATED: Projecting 49ers' 53-man roster as regular season nears.
&quot;Oh man, he&rsquo;s excited, he really is,&quot; Mostert said. &quot;He left some stuff out there on the field last year with the injury but I know this is going to be his bounce-back year and I'm excited to watch him.&rdquo;
The 49ers are expected to rely heavily on their D-line, just like their 2019 Super Bowl run, and it all starts with Bosa.

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